Nigeria is facing an escalating political crisis after President Bola Tinubu declared a ‘State of Emergency’ in the oil-rich Rivers State and suspended the Governor, his Deputy and all Lawmakers in the State Parliament for six months.

In a nationwide broadcast, Tinubu said he had received “disturbing security reports detailing incidents of vandalisation of pipelines by some militants without the governor taking any action to curtail them”.  But lawyers and opposition politicians are questioning the legality of the President’s decision.

Governor Siminalayi Fubara is a member of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) which has been plagued by reports of in-fighting. At a national level, the PDP is the main party opposed to the President’s All Progressives Congress. Tinubu said that politicians have not been able to work together effectively because of the ongoing turmoil. He alleged that allies of Fubara had threatened “fire and brimstone” against the governor’s enemies and that they had not “disowned” these comments. Before Tinubu took the decision to declare state of emergency, Rivers State Lawmakers had threatened to impeach the governor and his deputy. Tinubu said this political crisis has left Rivers State at a “standstill” adding that this latest measure is based on the need to restore peace and order to the State. 

Fubara in his own submission gave a measured response to the State of Emergency. He said there have been “political disagreements, but good governance has continued”. “Rivers State is safe, secure and peaceful under our watch,” he said.

 

The State of Emergency will allow the government to run the State in the interim and send security forces if needed. But many groups see Tinubu’s action as draconian. The Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) said it was “unconstitutional” to remove an elected governor, deputy governor, or members of a State’s legislature. The PDP rejected the emergency rule, calling it an attempt at “State capture”. It accused Tinubu of trying to turn Nigeria into a one-party country. “It is the climax of a well-oiled plot to forcefully take over Rivers state,” it said. It should be recalled that this is not the first time a State of Emergency has been declared in Nigeria. Former Presidents resorted to the action in a bid to curb insurgency and instability in different parts of the country.

On the night Tinubu announced the State of Emergency, a group of persons visited Wike at his residence. I don't know the purpose of their visit, maybe to felicitate with him on his perceived victory. Some pictures taken when they were leaving made it to the social media, and a particular one out of them got my attention.

In that picture, while the rest were in a lively mood, Wike cut a forlorn look. I couldn’t stop looking at that picture. It was heavily pregnant with meaning and I desperately wanted to midwife it. Why is he still sad? ‘Sebi’ his enemy has been removed? The acts that followed the declaration was the immediate swearing-in of the Administrator, the Attorney-General’s pathetic defence, the desperate and high level lobbying of the assembly members to approve the declaration, and the shameful ‘voice quorum’ method adopted by the assembly in approving it, gave me the breakthrough with the picture. What’s so important with the State of Emergency declaration in a State that’s not at war? That was Tinubu’s joker to masterfully nail Wike (I am just guessing). 

While it seemed both Tinubu and Wike wanted the same thing, to get rid of Siminalayi Fubara and gain control of Rivers, Tinubu was also out to get Wike, as his growing power was becoming a discomfort for him.  Wike wanted Fubara and his deputy out by impeachment so that he can install his boy, the Speaker as the governor, thereby still firmly controlling the state, but Tinubu had a different plan.  Tinubu’s plan is to directly own Rivers, and render Wike irrelevant structurally and politically. While Wike thought he was enjoying the Federal power all this while, Tinubu was actually equipping him to self-destroy.  Tinubu played along until the court ruling and just as Wike was about to pull the final string for his boys to impeach Sim, Tinubu shocked him with the State of Emergency announcement, sacking not only Sim but every of Wike's associates. 

Tinubu then appointed an administrator with a military background who knows the terrain and politics of the State to answer directly to him. This move cuts Wike's grip on the State and completely uproots his structure. Wike knows he’s in trouble. Having single-handedly destroyed PDP and fought really hard to become the most-hated man in the State, Tinubu has just stripped him of his last honour as the godfather- a leverage he has been using on the President. There is a saying that, before you go on a revenge fight you must dig two graves. Wike, already a persona non grata at home and about to be politically and structurally rendered irrelevant by Tinubu, arrogantly dug only one and buried his enemy there. Where would his own remains be buried now?  There’s only one true winner here and that is Tinubu, the master of the dark arts of politics.  Why is the control of Rivers so important?

Rivers State is a land flowing with milk and honey and it is the toast of any serious minded politician to have a share in the wealth of such a State. 

God Bless Nigeria!!!